Travel is much more than an economic engine. It’s an expression of human aspiration, cultural connection, and curiosity about the world. Yet, the contours of travel—the where, why, and how of global exploration—have undergone a dramatic reshaping in recent years. We’re not simply witnessing the recovery of an industry brought to its knees by the pandemic; we’re seeing the emergence of a new geography of travel—one defined by shifting priorities, emerging players, and fresh opportunities for destinations around the globe.

The numbers tell a compelling story. International arrivals have rebounded, yet the recovery has been uneven. The destinations we choose, the dollars we spend, and the dreams we pursue now reflect a recalibrated world. With Istanbul receiving the most visitors of any city in 2023 at 20.2 million arrivals, and Saudi Arabia debuting in the ranks of top 15-visited countries, the familiar hierarchies of past decades have been upended. It’s not just a return to travel—it’s a redefinition of it.

At Resonance, we view these shifts not as disruptions but as windows of opportunity. For cities and nations alike, this new map of global tourism offers profound insights into what travelers seek today—and what they’ll demand tomorrow.

Where We’ve Been: The Evolving Hierarchies of Travel

Rewind to the year 2000, and France stood alone at the summit of global tourism, hosting more visitors than any other nation (and it continues to this day). By 2010, emerging markets like Turkey, Ukraine, and Thailand began to reshape the top destinations list, signifying the growing appeal of under-explored regions. By 2023, however, a new narrative began to unfold. Saudi Arabia, Japan, and the Netherlands surged onto the leaderboard, pushing out traditional tourism powerhouses like Canada and Hong Kong. Istanbul, a crossroads of cultures for centuries, now reigns as the globe’s most visited city—a testament to its strategic investments in air connectivity and timeless allure.

But this isn’t just about where travelers are going; it’s about what those choices represent. Travelers today are seeking authenticity, diversity, and the stories only certain places can tell. They are more discerning, more purposeful, and increasingly guided by values that extend beyond leisure—values like sustainability, cultural connection, and local impact.

The Rise of the New Outbound Giants

Equally transformative are the shifts in outbound tourism markets. In 2019, China was the undisputed heavyweight, its spending on international travel surpassing the combined totals of the U.S. and Germany. Fast-forward to 2023, and while China’s recovery has lagged, new players have emerged to fill the void. India’s outbound spending has surged by 43%, reflecting its growing middle class and a burgeoning appetite for global exploration. Australia and the U.S. have also seen outbound expenditure climb by more than 20%, underscoring their resilience as travel markets.

For destinations, these changes signal not just opportunity but urgency. Understanding the evolving preferences of these travelers—whether it’s India’s preference for family-friendly itineraries or America’s pursuit of cultural immersion—will be key to staying ahead in an increasingly competitive landscape.

2030 and Beyond: What’s Next?

Looking ahead, the travel industry’s trajectory is nothing short of breathtaking. At the turn of the century, the UNWTO’s long-term forecast was for the number of international travellers to grow from 1 billion in 2010 to 2 billion by 2031. In the midst of the pandemic, few in the industry would have believed that forecast would still be realized, but it is already being revised upwards now to 2028 or 2029. By 2030, Oxford Economics expects global outbound lodging nights booked by international travellers to grow by 67%, while international travel spending is set to soar by 86%. This growth will be driven not only by traditional interregional travel but also by the strengthening of intraregional flows, particularly within Asia and the Middle East.

These numbers point to a profound truth: the future of travel will be shaped as much by regional ecosystems as by global trends. Japan, once a top outbound market, has pivoted to become a key global inbound competitor. Saudi Arabia’s rise as a destination reflects a broader transformation in how nations leverage cultural, economic, and infrastructural investments to attract global attention. Meanwhile, the U.S. could one day challenge France as the world’s most visited country based on the results of our global perception survey in 30 countries with Ipsos.

Redefining Success in the New Era

This profound growth will bring with it both great opportunities and challenges—and the implications for destinations are clear. Success in this new geography of travel will not be measured solely by visitor numbers, but by the quality and sustainability of the experiences offered. As travelers become more conscious of their impact, destinations must align their strategies with these evolving expectations. That means investing in green infrastructure, championing local cultures, and leveraging technology to create seamless, personalized journeys.

Data will be the compass guiding this transformation. As Resonance’s research shows, understanding where people want to visit, where they want to live, and where they see opportunity is essential to crafting place-based strategies that resonate with both visitors and residents.

Opportunity in Motion

The story of travel’s recovery is, at its core, a story of resilience and reinvention. From the streets of Istanbul to the shores of Saudi Arabia, the world is embracing a new era of movement and meaning. For destinations willing to adapt, the opportunities are as vast as the journeys ahead. The challenge is clear: to map not just where travelers are going, but where they want to go next—and to ensure that, when they arrive, the experience exceeds their dreams.

By embracing the new geography of travel, we’re not just charting the future of tourism. We’re empowering places to tell their stories, create connections, and unlock their full potential. Because in this dynamic, ever-evolving industry, the greatest journeys are the ones we have yet to imagine.

Want to discuss how to prepare and position your destination for this incoming time of peril and, more importantly, opportunity? Please email me and let’s chat about the future of your community, city or region.