Last month we shared some of our latest research for our upcoming America’s Best Cities report on the factors most highly correlated with the size of a city’s prime age population, spending by visitors, and the number of businesses being formed.

Long story short: we found that a post-pandemic convergence has occurred between the factors driving talent, visitors and businesses to cities.

Essentially: people want to live where they like to travel.

In addition to this analysis and collection of data for these key performance metrics, our research partner Ipsos also conducted a survey in March of the U.S. population to find out which U.S. towns and cities Americans most wanted to live in and visit, and which towns and cities they thought had the most job opportunities. The results are fascinating.

While the populations of many of our so-called “Superstar Cities” declined during and after the pandemic, these places are still very much top of mind for Americans. When asked, “Thinking about places across the United States, including small towns and large cities, what are the Top 3 towns or cities you would most like to live in some day?” the most popular choices were:

Top 10 Desirable Cities

1. New York
2. Miami
3. Los Angeles
4. Las Vegas
5. San Diego
6. Chicago
7. Seattle
8. San Francisco
9. Houston
10. Denver

However, the latest U.S. Census Bureau data shows that the population in half of these cities actually shrunk between April 2020 and July 2023. The cities that have actually grown the most in absolute numbers during that time were:

Top 10 Growth Cities

1. Dallas (+462,639)
2. Houston (+360,649)
3. Phoenix (+219,008)
4. Atlanta (+200,414)
5. Austin (+189,896)
6. Tampa (+167,672)
7. San Antonio (+145,884)
8. Charlotte (+144,767)
9. Orlando (+144,542)
10. Jacksonville (+107,396)

As you can see, the only city that is on both the Top 10 Desired and the Top 10 for Growth is Houston. So how do we explain why these lists are so different?

The cities on the Top 10 Desired list are many of the largest cities in the country and they have some of the strongest “brands” – which likely makes them the easiest to recall and desirable in the minds of consumers. For example, if we were to conduct a poll and ask them what kinds of cars they would like to drive some day, luxury brands such as Porsche, BMW and Mercedes would probably be near the top of the list. Meanwhile, we know that Toyota, Ford and Chrysler are actually the best selling automotive brands in the U.S.

Clearly the pandemic was a transformational event that has led to structural changes in the way we live and work in countries like the U.S., Canada, the UK and Australia. For example, we saw similar population declines in cities like Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal in Canada, and London in the UK.

Here in the U.S., the opportunity for more people to work remotely sparked a flight from many of the country’s largest cities to smaller cities across the Sunbelt. But while cities like Miami have been in the limelight and the city’s regional economy has indeed benefited from the relocation of some financiers from Manhattan to Miami Beach, 153,000 more domestic residents actually moved out of the Miami metro area than moved in between April 2020 and July 2023.

Miami’s population growth of 45,000 people during this time was largely thanks to a surge in net international migration of more than 185,000 new residents that helped offset all the domestic residents who left. So this wasn’t just about a flight to the Sunbelt, but more likely a flight to affordability.

In fact, Miami is not that different from New York, Los Angeles or San Francisco. When you look at the cities that attracted the most net international migration during this period, many of the so-called “Superstar Cities” are at the top of the list:

Top 10 Net International Migration

1. New York (+242,585)
2. Miami (+186,544)
3. Houston (+118,487)
4. Los Angeles (+114, 778)
5. Washington DC (+110,394)
6. Dallas (+92,983)
7. Boston (+88,322)
8. Chicago (+71,189)
9. SF (+68,367)
10. Seattle (+64,683)

As you can see, seven of the Top 10 cities for net international migration are also on the list of the most desirable cities in our analysis.

And that may be the most telling indicator with respect to what the future holds for our cities. During the pandemic, international migration slowed while domestic migration sped up and the flight to affordability did indeed cause a decline in the populations of our largest cities.

But that could be a temporal effect. The fact that immigrants continue to pour into these “Superstar Cities” and that Americans continue to see them as some of the most desirable places to live in the country suggests that the future is still bright for these cities.

On the other hand, the explosive population growth in places like Dallas, Houston, Austin, Phoenix and Atlanta means that many of these cities have lost at least some of their affordability advantage, and will now need to compete based on quality of place and economic opportunity if they not only want to keep their new residents, but become more competitive when it comes to attracting the immigrants that will become increasingly important to fueling the economy as the domestic population ages and retires from the workforce.

In the end, this disruption and redistribution of the population has probably been a good thing for the economy as a whole. A handful of “Superstar Cities” enjoyed an outsized share of the benefits that came with the growth of the knowledge economy, fueling inequality and division within and between cities and regions.

Massive investments in manufacturing and re-industrialization now underway will help fuel the economies of many of the new fast-rising cities and leave the country with a better distributed, just and resilient economy a decade from now.

But that future is not a given. Rising cities will need to develop new policies and make significant investments in infrastructure, amenities, housing and mobility if they want to realize that future. Otherwise they may find that the boom they are experiencing will quickly be followed by an inevitable bust.

If you’d like to learn more about how Resonance is helping rising cities prepare for the future, we’d love to chat with you.